做者：程泽宇 余雷
疏分伙 疑 主权部
本次评级成果
经暂中币诺止等第 ：Ai-
经暂本币诺止等第 ：Ai-
评级展看：波动
上次 评级成果
经暂中币诺止等第 ：Ai
经暂本币诺止等第 ：Ai
评级展看：背里
评级时分
2017年10月10日
尾要数据
评级没有 雅观面
2016年，巴西联邦共战国(以下简称“巴西”)国家管理 才气较强；经济真力较强，连绝两年堕进阑珊 ，通货膨胀环境 减轻，掉 业情势 没有 竭恶化；巴西国家收财水仄一样平常 ，财产挨 算单一，抗风险才气较好 ，银止体系 较无缺但里临坏账率上降及疑贷开业下滑等风险，根柢设备 较为降伍，里临人丁老龄化标题 成绩；巴西财政状态 没有 竭恶化，财政赤字水仄下企，当局 债务水仄没有 竭上降，财政支进对当局 债务的保障才气较着降降；巴西内部真力尚可，对中贸易 渐渐 回热使常常账户赤字渐渐 减少 ，内债团体 水仄较低，当局 内债占比适中，常常账户支进战中汇储藏对内债的保障水仄尚可。经综开评价，疏分伙 疑评价有限公司（以下简称“疏分伙 疑”）下调巴西经暂本、中币诺止等第 为Ai-。该评级成果反响反应了巴西主权诺止风险较低，按期偿付债务本息的才气较强。
随着2017年内部经济环境 战国际贸易 环境 的改擅，有助于推动巴西货品战办事的出心，估计2017年巴西经济删速会有所上降。经综开评价，疏分伙 疑肯定 巴西经暂本、中币评级的展看为波动。
下风
Ø 矿产本钱歉厚，农业下风较着；
Ø 除夜宗商品价格上降，对中贸易 渐渐 由顺好 转为顺好 ；
Ø 内债水仄较低，内债偿付才气尚可。
闭注
Ø 当局 贪腐战社会犯法减轻政治没有 波动性；
Ø 掉 踪业率下企，掉 业环境 没有 竭恶化；
Ø 通货膨胀宽峻，削强居仄易远斲丧 才气；
Ø 财政状态 恶化，财政赤字水仄没有 竭走下；
Ø 当局 债务包袱减轻，财政支进对当局 债务的保障水仄也渐渐 降降。
Rating Results (Downgraded)
Long-term Foreign Currency Rating: Ai-
Long-term Local Currency Rating: Ai-
Rating Outlook: Stable
Rating Results (Previous)
Long-term Foreign Currency Rating: Ai
Long-term Local Currency Rating: Ai
Rating Outlook: Negative
Date of Rating: October 10th, 2017
Major Indicators
Rationale
In 2016, due to weakened country governance capacity, the Federative Republic of Brazil (hereinafter referred to as "Brazil") has undergone economic downturn for two consecutive years with worsened inflation condition and high unemployment rate. Brazil is a medium-developed country, and its resilience to risk is relatively low due to its undiversified industrial structure, outdated infrastructure system and aging population. Its banking system faces problems of rising bad debt and declining credit business. Brazil’s fiscal position continues to deteriorate as fiscal deficit and government debt continue to increase. Fiscal revenue to government debt coverage has significantly reduced. On the bright side, Brazil’s external finance strength has taken a change for the better. The improved international trade has gradually reduced its current account deficit. The overall level of external debt remains low, and the government's external debt is considered moderate. Current account receipts and foreign reserves provide adequate coverage to Brazil’s external debt. In conclusion, China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., ltd (“LCR”) downgraded Brazil’s long-term local and foreign currency credit ratings from Aito Ai -. The results indicate that Brazil has a low expectation of sovereign credit risk, and its capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is strong.
With the improvement of global macro-economic environment and international trade condition, the export of Brazilian goods and services is expected to improve in 2017. Brazil's economic growth is also expected to pick up in 2017. Lianhe Ratings believes that the outlook for its long-term local and foreign currency are stable.
Strengths
Ø Brazil has rich mineral resources and significant advantage in agriculture;
Ø Current account gradually recovers as the global commodity prices rise;
Ø Low external debt level; Adequate CAR to external debt coverage;
Concerns
Ø Government corruption and social crime result in political instability;
Ø High unemployment rate due to worsened employment environment;
Ø Increased inflation rate reduces consumption;
Ø Fiscal position deteriorates as fiscal deficit continues to widen;
Ø As government debt increases, fiscal revenue todebt coverage capacity deteriorates.
接洽 人
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